A little while ago, Frequent Commenter Ngthagg and I had a back and forth regarding Adrian Aucoin. Here's his comment, which is the jumping off point for this discussion:
I think Aucoin may have a bit more value than some people think. Look at his numbers:
10g/25p
+13
20:57/game
37PIM
I don't know if that's worth $4M, but it's worth more than bugger all. Those are the numbers of a reliable offensive dman. And it's hard to say if he'll take a step back next year, since this year was such a drastic improvement over his time in Chicago.
Quite sensible. Aucoin's counting numbers are certainly nothing to sneeze at and were actually some of the better ones on the Flames back-end. The more I've thought about it, though, the more Im convinced that Adrian will indeed take a step back next year.
Firstly, keep in mind Aucoin played against nobodies all year and spent over four minutes on the PP with Phaneuf/Iginla/Huselius/Langkow. Almost anyone playing beside Phaneuf sees an increase in their PP efficacy - just ask Andrew Ference. "Friendly surroundings" and all that. And speaking in general terms, I've found that players that excel only in the cuddliest of circumstances tend to fall back eventually (because circumstances can't always be cuddly). For evidence see: Tom Preissing.
Secondly, Aucoin's favorable results from this past season represent a bunch of near-career-bests, suggesting a regression back to the norm is in order next year. The 76 games he played was the most he's managed since 03-04, His 35 point total was the 2nd best of his career and the 8.3 shooting percentage was his highest since that 23 goal season in Vancouver all the way back in '98. His career averages for the various categories are:
GP - 59
goals - 7
points - 23
SH% - 5.5
Chances are, Aucoin falls back towards the mean in one, if not all, of these areas next year. Especially since he's a 34 year-old veteran of 13+ seasons.
Even considering the role of chance and easy minutes detailed above, like me, you may still be a little surprised by Aucoin's numbers, especially if you watched him lumber around all year. There were many times that Aucoin looked like a fairly terrible defender, particularly if he was caught on the ice with anyone of moderate skill. His +13 doesn't seem to jive with my qualitative perceptions of his abilities.
Which is why I wasn't surprised when I stumbled across Aucoin's name in this "horseshoes list" compiled by Jeff over at Sisu Hockey. What it shows is the players that seemed to benefit from complimentary difference in for/against team SH% while they were on the ice. As you can see, the Flames had a SH% of 10.6 versus a 6.4 SH% for the opponents while Aucoin was playing - a difference of 4.2%. I suppose it's possible he was driving these kinds of results, but, after watching him all year, I really don't think so. As Jeff notes:
I also removed the players who are obvious drivers of big % differences (Crosby, Malkin, Lidstrom, Getzlaf, Iginla etc). No point in including them - I'm looking for the guys who are due for a fall, guys you might want to avoid trading for.
Or, in the Flames case, avoid keeping on the roster when cap-space is a precious commodity. The more I look at Aucoin this off-season, the more I think trading him is the prudent move. All arrows point to a big step backwards next year; if Adrian's 4M cap-hit is poor value when all the coins land on heads, he's going to look like a hideous boat anchor when the numbers start averaging out (just ask Chicago). Deal him now when his stats still look good and use the cap-space on a top 6 forward.
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Class is always in
9 hours ago
21 comments:
i've said it once and i'll say it a zillion times. sutter has far bigger fish to fry on this roster than adrian aucoin.
sure, aucoin's 4 mil is a massive chunk of dough, but he is still a useful body on the blueline and will standout as a good veteran presence with warrener and eriksson gone (please please please).
i think ridding the flames of those two contracts (which add up to aucoin's 4 mil) would be priority. if daz can get that done, then fine. think about dumping our #5 guy.
i worry about what it would take to shake aucoin loose (doubtful with a NTC, mind you). would it be a package deal with a young roster player like lombardi ?. would it be in exchange for a cheaper but more useless guy (as in, aucoin for zyuzin) ? these options scare me a lot more than having #33 in a flaming C for one more year.
as i KNOW you agree, tanguay's 4 mil is also glaring (for what he contributes on paper) but getting rid of him doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do. the same goes for aucoin, IMO, even if next year's stats depreciate a bit .
bottom line: WI is F*#$?% sick of having total liabilities on the blueline. verdict: aucoin is expensive, but he can stay.
I would prefer to see ALL of Aucoin, Eriksson and Warrener go. The difference with Aucoin is he might actually have some value as a trade, assuming we can get him to waive that NTC. Warrener and Eriksson are waiver/ahl/please retire fodder. We might actually get something in return for Aucoin. Plus the 4M in cap-space.
I also doubt Sutter would have to sweeten the pot in any potential deal - as has been mentioned, Aucoin's counting numbers look good enough for him to seem valuable to a team that needs some veteran presence on the back-end and has cap-room (Carolina? NYR?).
Obviously, my position isn't "get rid of Aucoin at all costs". But, I was Sutter, I'd be asking Adrian to pick a few cities he'd be willing to move to.
*if I was Sutter
LOL
i like "I was Sutter" better.
;)
okay, so in your premise, who do we have on the blueline, then ? obviously dion, reggie, sarich, gio and i belive you mentionned keeping vandermeer on (which i'm not against) but we're still one gaping hole away from a complete blueline. and where ? in the 3rd pairing with gio ? or does this somehow open a hole next to dion ???
i don't know if i'm convinced... infact, YOU weren't convinced as recently as friday... ;)
Pardy, Peleck, Hale, JM Liles, Mike Weaver, Bryce Salvador...
the great thing about 3rd pairing defensemen is...they're relatively plentiful.
I wasn't convinced last Friday. But, the more I look, the more I think Aucoin's going to regress and look a lot uglier back there next year.
*if I was Sutter
...sometime, i wish you were
the great thing about 3rd pairing defensemen is...they're relatively plentiful.
... eriksson, zyuzin, warrener... yeah i guess you're right.... THIRD PAIRING DEFENSEMEN HAVE TO BE GOOD TOO.
this is why i think aucoin still holds value for this team, and i'm sure you'll agree that if we want to promote a pelech, pardy, or palin (heretofore dubbed "the Ps"), in addition to giordano, we can't have a piece-of-crap third pairing guy.
aucoin stays. ;)
this is why i think aucoin still holds value for this team
This is where we part ways on this issue. I dont think Adrian Aucoin is very good. I think his nice stats line this year was largely illusory. Thus, I dont see Aucoin as the 10 goal, 35 point +13 player he was this year. I see him as a probable 5 goal, 22 point, -5 player who misses 20 games due to injury. How much value will he have then, @ $4M? Granted, Im reading the tea leaves here and could be wrong...but all arrows seem to be pointing in that direction.
it's a tough call, admittedly. but that's hockey, right ? who would've predicted, in 03/04, that kipper's numbers would drop so much ? who would've thought last summer that nolan would be healthy and contribute for a full season ? who would've predicted st.louis to be a superstar ?
you win some, you lose some. and i'm thinkin' aucoin's got another year in him, if played in a limited capacity, to put up some decent numbers.... who knows what sutter thinks ??? but, with any luck, he's currently trying to find ways to get rid of the REAL anchors of the team: eriksson, warrener & (to a lesser extent) primeau.
Dude's gotta go. I don't think he did that badly this year. I don't think he'll do that badly next year either. But the thing missing in the debate thus far is what you could have instead. If you cut the cap hit of bubba, rhett, and adrian... that's $8M of cap space. With that kind of money, we can stop worrying about the gap we would have on the 3rd pairing without aucoin, and instead go fill in the much more massive gap we have in the top 4 with aucoin!
Seriously, who would you rather have, aucoin at $4M, or redden at $5M, or campbell at $6M? I know that's tight, but if you can actually shed all $8M, it seems to work when I try to run the numbers. Plug in Hale, Vandemeer and Gio in that 3rd pairing, and I predict a much improved special teams along with a bounce back in Kipper's numbers.
Granted, I highly doubt we can shed all $8M, unless ownership is willing to pay 1 or 2 of those guys to play in the AHL, and a redden/campbell type is a complete pipe dream without that (instead of just a partial one ;).
None-the-less, my vote goes for trade Aucoin. I think, in my illusionary world, Aucoin for a 7th rounder could work. What I absolutely don't want to see is that we can't move him so we trade Tanguay. I still think Tanguay is a 70-90+ point guy, who can now also play defense, and "I was Sutter", I'd be signing him to a under-valued 3 year contract NOW before he gets to play a full year on Iggy's line.
We're all dreaming though of course. Since the Tanguay trade, every move Sutter has made has been the exact opposite of what I've wanted him to do (hometown discount contracts not included). Unless the Gio re-signing was an indication that things are changing, I doubt enough dead weight will be shed next year to change the course we're on.
Mediocrity, straight ahead!
i worry about what it would take to shake aucoin loose (doubtful with a NTC, mind you). would it be a package deal with a young roster player like lombardi ?. would it be in exchange for a cheaper but more useless guy (as in, aucoin for zyuzin) ? these options scare me a lot more than having #33 in a flaming C for one more year.
I would be willing to part with him for next to nothing just to have that cap space.
This is where we part ways on this issue. I dont think Adrian Aucoin is very good. I think his nice stats line this year was largely illusory. Thus, I dont see Aucoin as the 10 goal, 35 point +13 player he was this year. I see him as a probable 5 goal, 22 point, -5 player who misses 20 games due to injury. How much value will he have then, @ $4M? Granted, Im reading the tea leaves here and could be wrong...but all arrows seem to be pointing in that direction.
I completely agree. His glaring defensive issues were brought into the spotlight the second he had to play somewhat competent opponents. There's no reason to think he'll improve and every reason to think he'll get worse, and he's already overpaid.
But if I were GM I would do everyting in my power to catapult about half our defensive group from 07-08
I would be willing to part with him for next to nothing just to have that cap space.
my point is that i don't think any team will TAKE him for that kind of money, for the same reason that we want to get rid of him. ie: i think we'll have to sweeten the pot by throwing in something else/someone else, or by taking a useless guy in return.
like MG said, 3rd pairing defensemen are relatively plentiful, and none cost 4 million/year. so why would anyone want to pick UP aucoin ??
3rd pairing defensemen are relatively plentiful, and none cost 4 million/year. so why would anyone want to pick UP aucoin ??
His stats line looks good if you didn't watch him all year and cap space isn't as precious to some teams.
I brought up the NYR previously. They stand to lose up to 4 defensemen to free agency this summer and have one of the youngest bluelines around. They're also going to have cap space to spare (they currently have about 32M committed to next year). AND Aucoin is familiar with NY. Looks like a natural fit to me. 4M seems like a lot to us, but it's chump change for the Rangers. And I think they're going to need an elder statesmen that can play on the PP.
Get 'er done Sutter.
It's a tough call to make, in watching him play he does very well on the PP, but his glaring defensive weakness's do make him a liability. The main issue I see in trading him is who is going to play with Dion? Gio could potentially be the guy but who knows where his game is at right now. Although in looking at his stats for 06-07(48gp-7-8-15), if he played a full season they would be pretty close to Aucoins stats this year, and at a much much cheaper price tag. Allright, I just convinced myself, get him outta here!!!
like MG said, 3rd pairing defensemen are relatively plentiful, and none cost 4 million/year. so why would anyone want to pick UP aucoin ??
Only someone who didn't do their research thoroughly enough, a Kevin Lowe type guy looking for a Joffrey Lupul type defender.
I'm still undecided about Aucoin. It will depend on what's coming back. But I could see long-shot prospects, or lower draft picks, as a good choice in return.
What about Washington as a desination? They have the cap room, they have a need for experience on their blueline, and they've hardly seen the guy since the lockout. From Aucoin's perspective, if he wants a Stanley Cup, Washington is a good place to be.
MG: You think JM Liles is a third pair defenceman?
CJ:
You don't? Liles plays against nobodies and gets lots of PP time. He's not very good in his own zone, and never has been. This year, according to behindthenet, He played some of the softest competition on the team, but had the highest GA/60 rate of all blueliners.
If JM Liles is on your third pair, your team must have an incredible top four. Liles is easily top four on every team in the Northwest. There are plenty of defencemen that play soft minutes and do nada, Liles is averaging .5pt/gm as an NHLer. PP specialist is not a bug its a feature!
I guess we differ on what we see as "top 4" defenders. I rate my 1-6 based on who a guy can play against. On the Flames, it currently goes:
Regehr
Sarich
Phaneuf
GIANT GAP
Aucoin
Hale
Eriksson
Warrener
If Liles were a Flame, he'd get more than 20 minutes a game - but he'd probably play with Aucoin against other 3rd and 4th lines at ESn -- which is how he's been employed most of his career. This year, Liles averaged more than 4 minutes a night on the PP, but just 11 seconds (!!) per night on the PK (sort of like Aucoin, actually). That speaks to his ability in his own end. I consider that a 3rd pairing defenseman, personally.
I'm with metro on the JML issue. A PP specialist dman is a nice thing to have, but not vital, considering that the whole point of a PP is that you don't spend your time playing defense. But it's EV where a team spends most of their time, and it's EV that has to define your top two pairings.
I think it's the dman equivalent of the soft competition eater. Valuable to have on the team, but don't mistake them for a top line player.
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