Thursday, July 10, 2008

Grading the off-season

I'd like this to be something of an open thread so everyone can share their impressions of the Flames activities this summer. I'll get things started, please add your own in the comments if you're so inclined.

- Alex Tanguay for 25th pick. Thumbs down.

Even given the restraints of the situation (Tanguay unhappy, NTC, need for cap-space) I still don't like the Tanguay deal. In the end, the Flames gave up an elite ES player (whose contract suddenly looks pretty damn good) for a late first round pick. It's going to be tough to replace his contributions.

- Mike Cammalleri for 17th pick. Thumbs up.

Cammalleri is a 26 year-old center/winger who has already scored 30 goals and 80 points in this league. He's already a significant threat on the PP and still has room to grow to his ceiling. At 3.35M, his should be one of the better value contracts on the team.

- Rene Bourque for a second round pick. Thumbs up.

Even before the deletions of Tanguay and Huselius the Flames were thin on the wings. Bourque is a low-cost acquisition who is a proven NHL player. He fills out the organizational depth, has room to improve and is fairly inexpensive (1.3M).

- Tim Ramholt for Kyle Greentree. Thumbs up.

I'd already given up on Ramholt as a prospect, so I see this a potential "something for nothing" deal. After watching him in two straight preseasons and looking at his AHL numbers, it was pretty clear that the Swiss Miss had stalled in his development and had been passed by a couple of younger guys in the Flames system.

On the other hand, Greentree is a big, scoring winger who managed 24 goals in his first professional season last year in the AHL. His play even warranted a couple of games in the big league with the Flyers. He'll be a welcome addition to the organizations prospect cupboard in general.

- UFA signing - Curtis Glencross. Thumbs up.

GlenX. Glengarry Glencross. Flames killer. Whatever you want to call him, Glencross is a clear upgrade over many of the guys the Flames had skating in the bottom 6 last year, even if you take his nice little run in Edmonton as a bit of a fluke. He's as fast as Lombardi, aggressive and has the potential to actually score every so often. Best part is, he's cheaper than Primeau.

- UFA signing - Daymond Langkow. Thumbs up.

Langkow has been the model of consistency since becoming a Flame (and for most of his career). Whether for 4.5M per or 5M per, he should provide value for his contract, at least through years one and two. The length of the deal may prove problematic, but that remains to be seen.

- UFA signing - Todd Bertuzzi. Thumbs down.

Even as a hockey move, the Bert signing is a questionable one. He's injury-prone, on the decline and his rates/reviews from last season are hardly positive. There were and are currently better options on the open market (eg: Gelinas, Willaims).

The price and term are good, meaning relatively low risk. If Bert excels then I'll change my mind.

Other: Giordano re-signing (thumbs up), Van Der Gulik resigning (thumbs up), Prust re-signing (thumbs down - only because it's a one-way deal), McElhinney re-signing (thumbs up), Nystrom re-signing (ambivalent).

Did I miss any? Agree/disagree?

14 comments:

Greg Ashby said...

Agree on all points except Bertuzzi. I'm tentatively thumbs up on that just because of the dollar amount. Plus, I still think this is a "re-tooling" year, so all I care about is that we're well entertained (and that the young players get development chances). Which ever way this goes, it will definitely be entertaining. :)

Only thing you missed was the waiver action.

Waiving Warrener/Nilson/Erikson - thumbs up

Doing nothing else with them yet - thumbs down. I'm still waiting to see what happens next though. 1 or 2 have to disappear somehow.

NOTE: I do like all three players still, there just isn't room on the payroll for them.

robert cleave said...

Vandermeer. At what he got paid last year, he would have been fine. At 2.3 million? For three years? It would take a big leap on his part to justify that number. That Kurt Sauer contract looks better for Phoenix every day.

Dave said...

I can't give a thumbs up / thumbs down yet to Bertuzzi, but the more I think about it the more I lean towards it being a "thumbs up" move.

But I cannot agree that the alternatives were better. Gelinas particularly -- the man is 38 years old to Bertuzzi's 33, he put up half as many points as Bertuzzi did last season and he's also missed a lot more games due to injury than Bertuzzi as well. Bertuzzi is clearly the better choice here, from a hockey perspective. The contract he signed is "cheap" so he's more likely to outperform it than not, I'd hope.

MetroGnome said...

Gelinas particularly -- the man is 38 years old to Bertuzzi's 33, he put up half as many points as Bertuzzi did last season and he's also missed a lot more games due to injury than Bertuzzi as well. Bertuzzi is clearly the better choice here, from a hockey perspective.

Well, you do have consider the different circumstances in which each player played last year to compare the two. Gelinas played tougher competition (0.02) with much weaker teammates (-0.14) than Bert and still had a +4 at ES...not to mention a lower GA/60 than Bert (2.08). In contrast, Bert was the opposite: He played against nobodies with strong linemates (and ended up +9, but with GA/60 of 2.26).

Gelinas also got next to no PP time, while Bertuzzi played a 3 minutes a night with the man advantage.

In addition, while Martin is older by 5 years, he's actually been the more durable player over the last 3 seasons (221 GP to Betuzzi's 165). Also, there's no chance of him being a divisive presence in the dressing room.

The only thing one could say about Bert above Gelinas is he has a higher potential offensive ceiling I think.

Vandermeer. At what he got paid last year, he would have been fine. At 2.3 million? For three years? It would take a big leap on his part to justify that number

Agreed. Not sure how I forgot him. I dont mind Vadermeer as a player, but I think that has a good chance to be a poor value signing. Thumbs down.

Only thing you missed was the waiver action.

Waiving Warrener/Nilson/Erikson - thumbs up


Yeah...I held off on that until Sutter actually does something with it. Thumbs up if they go away. BIG thumbs down if they dont.

cynical joe said...

What actually is the result/advantage of having Warrener, Ericsson and Nilsson 'pre-waived'? Is it easier to move them down to Quad Cities? Does it change their contract status in some way?

MetroGnome said...

What actually is the result/advantage of having Warrener, Ericsson and Nilsson 'pre-waived'? Is it easier to move them down to Quad Cities? Does it change their contract status in some way?

There really isn't any besides our knowing Sutter doesn't really consider them useful players anymore. But until he gets rid of them in some fashion, they're still part of the team and the payroll.

cynical joe said...

And the Red Deer Mafia gets another made man.

cynical joe said...

sorry, link should go here.

MetroGnome said...

Indeed. Only another Sutter can touch Duane now.

Good for Noodles though. Although I always figured he'd get into the broadcasting side of things.

Anyone else worried about the apparent formation of an old boys club?

sure mojo said...

MG, I agree with all your thumbs, but I would like to hold on the Bert verdict. I don't like this very much now, but if it works out...Having said that, if Shanny signs a Bertuzzi-like contract elsewhere, I'll crap my pants. I'd bet he could meet or exceed anything Bert-loozi brings to the table this year. Plus, Shanahan and Iginla, IMO hockey's two best ambassadors, on the same team would have been awesome. Otherwise, it should be fun watching GlenX and Lombo fly around. And, I'll give a pre-thumbs up to any trade involving Aucoin (bet you will too).

therealdeal said...

I would disagree with Bertuzzi. Not saying its a thumbs up but I think it's somewhat neutral. Vandermeer was a mistake IMO. Also, until Sutter dumps the trio that's a thumbs down. Also, waiving Nilson instead of Primeau is a mistake IMO. Nilson is cheaper and I think a better player.

Anonymous said...

What a face lift on the flames team. I count 8 departures and 5 arrivals so far and expect a trade involving Adrian Aucoin and Anders Eriksson or Marcus Nilson or Wayne Primeou soon. May trade a few of them for draft picks next year.
I think Big Bert will score 28 goals and achieve 41 assists in this year.
The struggle for jobs on the Flames this year will be tough.

MetroGnome said...

re: My thumbs down for the Bert signing. Looking at the numbers and listening to the reviews of his play leads me to think, as of right now, that there's a better chance he's a bust next year than not. I wouldn't say it's a lock by any means, however.

Anonymous said...

And the Tanguay deal looks a lot better when you view it as a three-way that includes Mike Camalleri. For trading down seven slots on a deep first round, Sutter managed to dump salary and replace an unhappy player who was playing below potential for a younger, flexible, player, with equally high prospects for success.