There's a lot of talk recently about the Flames needing to beat elite teams "if they want to be elite themselves". As of right now, Calgary has played the best in the WC six times (Detroit, Chicago and San Jose) and won precisely zero games. I haven't checked the cumulative goal differential of those six matches, but Im guessing it would be well under water from a Flames perspective.
Calgary obviously falls into a second tier of clubs in the league right now: good enough to beat up on mediocre opponents and compile a decent record, but not a legitimate candidate to challenge the true contenders. Of course, that's why there are only a few elite teams in the league; making the leap from "good" to "great" is very difficult.
Ironically, Calgary's issues are the inverse of the problems that held the team back last season. Previously, the Flames were plagued by a lack of quality forwards beyond the top 6 - everyone below the second line were in the red in terms of goal differential. Jarome was tossing aside all comers, but Yelle et al were being chewed up themselves: the elites were elite, but the foot soldiers were cannon fodder.
This season, the supporting cast is actually carrying the day. Bourque, Moss, Glencross and to a lesser extent Boyd, Nystrom and Lombardi have taken a step forward and strengthened the overall depth of the club. The true problem thus far, though, and the reason the Flames have a nominal GD and are mired a step below the best in the league, is the near $20M in under-performing cap dollars the club has invested in Iginla, Phaneuf and Kiprusoff.
If you take a look at the best teams in the NHL right now, you'll notice they all have elite players (or players performing at an elite level). Detroit has Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Hossa; San Jose has Thornton, Marleau and Boyle; Boston has Savard, Krejci (!) and Kessel etc. All of these guys are not only just producing at high rates (at ES and the PP) but also significantly outscoring the bad guys at 5on5.
The Flames only have one guy close to that level currently: Rene Bourque. The rest of the top 6 (Langkow, Bertuzzi, Iginla, Cammalleri) either don't score that much (Bert, Langkow) or get scored on a lot (Iginla, Cammalleri).
Add in the struggles of Dion Phaneuf, who is getting scored on more and scoring less than perhaps ever before as a Flame (whatever deficiencies have been present in Dion's game in the past, he's usually been able to outscore them to some degree and end up in the black at ES) and a 5.83M goalie performing at or below the leagues mean range in just about every goaltending category except for "wins" and the Flames have a lot of under-producing dollars at the top of the roster.
Hard to diagnose the causes of the big boys struggles, because I don't think there's a single culprit. Dion seems to be buckling under a diverse litany of pressures (Norris nomination, huge amount of ice time, hefty new contract) plus the bounces haven't been kind to him. On the other hand, I think Jarome is somewhat hampered by his lesser linemates so far (although Im not sure that's the whole story), which is something I saw coming this summer when I predicted the Flames would take a step back at ES due to the expulsion of Juice and Tanguay (and addition of Cammalleri and Bertuzzi). I didn't think the effect would be this pronounced, however, and it doesn't really explain his step back on the PP...so take that for what it's worth.
As for Kipper, I think that he peaked a couple of years ago and is just...mediocre now. He's good enough to win games on a capable club, but isn't going to carry anyone to victory and certainly isn't going to be challenging for any Vezinas or Conn Smythes. I'd love to be wrong on this count, but there's a large (and growing) body of evidence that Kipper is probably overpaid by about 3M or so at this point.
I don't know if whatever is suppressing the big guns fire is intractable or merely temporary; if Jarome and/or Phaneuf can improve over their first half performances, the Flames have a chance to win the division and make some noise in the post season this year. If not, and they continue to under-deliver relative to their dollars (and ice time) then Im guessing the Flames will continue to get beat about the face and neck by the San Jose's of the World.
Prediction - 4-2 Sharks. Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek and Boyle for San Jose. Lombardi and Langkow for Calgary
32 comments:
cumulative goal differential of those six matches:
11 for, 29 against...yikes!
I've maintained that Kipper has been on a downward trend since spring '06. Like you said, I hope he proves us wrong.
That shorty by the Hawks to make it 3-1 just killed me. Not one hint on the TV broadcast that Hey, maybe Kipper should have stopped that! What with it being a not-very-hard shot along the ice that went between his legs.
Kipper has played the 2nd half of a B2B something like 6 times now this year, and has been teh suck in all but one (the OT win in MIN). He *is* mediocre now (though the overuse doesn't help). He just is.
I think with Phaneuf, it's *mostly* just the bounces, and he'll have a pretty nice 2nd half. At the very least, he does not seem over-tired.
That shorty by the Hawks to make it 3-1 just killed me. Not one hint on the TV broadcast that Hey, maybe Kipper should have stopped that! What with it being a not-very-hard shot along the ice that went between his legs.
They interviewed Versteeg afterwards and even he was surprised it went in.
I think with Phaneuf, it's *mostly* just the bounces, and he'll have a pretty nice 2nd half. At the very least, he does not seem over-tired.
Not tired, but he certainly looks...I dont know...rattled? I think he's spooked and is trying to change things up, which results in more screw-ups (ever try to change your swing on the golf course cuz things aren't going right? Disaster every time).
Hmmmm......Phaneuf on the cover of EA's game this year and a shitty season to date.....coincidence or the curse?
Discuss.
i think phaneuf's problems come from trying to do too much. i'm not sure if this is an expectation he's placed on himself or one placed on him by the coaches, but it's a right point/left point, hard D/pinch, hit hard/less aggressive system type conundrum that is playing out on the ice for #3.
Perhaps playing every night has something to do with it. What's the point in even paying a back-up if you're never going to use him?
9-0 Sharks. Go San Jose :-)
Wow, 3-0 CGY in the first, perhaps the Flames have taken the next step?
Erhm, or not.
Umm . . . wow. I think Calgary may have something to prove tonight.
I see Giordano was on the ice for both EV goals, as well as scoring on the PP. Didn't wi just put his name on her jersey? Coincidence, I'm sure . . .
I noticed this a few games back, but never got around to commenting on it: Nystrom hasn't been on the ice for an EV goal since at least the beginning of December. He doesn't play a lot of minutes, and sees the weakest competition, but I think it's still worth mentioning. (He was a -1 in Vancouver on Nov. 27th, so that's probably the last time he was scored on.)
Backlund is being interviewed on the radio right now, and he WILL be in Kelowna for the rest of the season. He's blaming his poor results on playing for a weak team where the lines were constantly being shuffled. Apparently he played in a "four nations tournament" and had 5 points in 3 games, which combined with his WJC results looks more like what we were expecting out of him. It also suggests that he's not at the point where he can create results on his own, but that may not be an issue when he reaches the Flames, assuming we can keep up our forward depth.
Holy fuck was that a good period. Like, the absolute best period I can remember the Flames playing, considering the caliber of the opponent. 4-0. Bloody awesome.
Word verification: bersorki, which sums up quite nicely what the Flames did to the Sharks that period.
How is it possible that two days ago the Flames look like crap for 55 minutes, eke out a fluke win against the half-assed Preds, and now completely destroy the Sharks?
What surreal alternate universe have I fallen into?
Word Verification: Bashocal
Also highly appropriate
AUCOIN! GOD DAMMIT.
Aw, puck bounced on Aucoin.
They got back to business in the last five minutes there. Flames have a concentration problem they still need to get over, but I think the two goals may have them awake for the third.
Also, the Pardy penalty was bullshit.
Yeah, that was a brutal giveaway by Aucoin. Not that bad of a period, really, just a couple moments of stupity. Sure would like to see an insurance goal to start the 3rd, I'd feel a lot more comfortable...
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the Chicago loss. Second game of a back-to-back, on the road, against a very good team . . . no one is going to look back at the end of the season and say, "Calgary should have won that one!"
That loss to Dallas on Dec 2nd, on the other hand . . .
This game I think says they are on the brink of taking the next step. Cheer loud flames fans! This year absolutely anything can happen and the Flames are giving us all a reason to believe.
I dont think it is right to blame kipper really (and after watching that shift where Bert saved a goal then blocked a shot I think its time to lay off him as well). Kipper is solid when he needs to be. One game the announcers were comparing him to Fuhr. Fuhr was all about the wins he got, not the stats. He could steal the game with a huge save but let in a softy when the game didnt matter (ie being up 6-2). His stats arent great but he made a huge save tonight on clowe to keep it 4-2, that could have been the game breaker. Originally I disagreed but Im starting to see the theory that Hrudey had and like it. All of this of course is excluding the chicago game.
As for Bert the guy has been one of the best players on the team of late. Where the hell is iggy. Two shots not points atleast hes even. This was a big game for the team (and him considering the media is jumping on him now) but he has done nothing...furstrating
Kipper looked pretty shaky tonight, to my eye. A lot of big rebounds, and some luck that he didn't give up a couple more. Although, it seems that every bounce lands right on a Shark stick.
Anyway, helluva win and a big confidence booster, I would think.
BRING ON THE ISLANDERS!!!
not to dwell on it but theres absolutely no way a team can go 14-4-3 if they arent at least getting clutch goal tending...you just cant do it. The defense makes him look stupid sometimes.
not to dwell on it but theres absolutely no way a team can go 14-4-3 if they arent at least getting clutch goal tending...you just cant do it. The defense makes him look stupid sometimes.\
Then you haven't watched Detroit this year.
I dont think Kipper is bad. He just isn't elite anymore.
Lol I knew someone was going to say Detroit. Its a fair statement however I would also argue and say, not to take away from anything, but a Flames roster (not quite to the calibre of Detroit) cannot win without to a 15-4-3 streak without above average goal tending. Especially when the game is on the line.
Sorry, Brent...Im not convinced. Wins alone are not evidence of a goaltenders prowess, whatever the sequence in which they're amassed. During the recent run, Calgary has gotten good goaltending from Kipper - sometimes. They've also gotten mediocre goaltending out of him, which they've managed to outscore (the 6-4 Edmonton win comes to mind).
Didn't wi just put his name on her jersey?
it was sent to the place today, seven hours before gametime, truth be told....
First half of the season and Kipper hasn't been... "bad". However if the second half looks the same, consider him an overpaid tender and peaked out.
I am often quick to chime in and defend Kipper because one of my strong beliefs is that goaltending is more related to team play than we often like to think. I AM thinking Conklin, who just a couple of years back couldn't buy a job and now is playing well on an elite team. Kippers downward trend is in part due to a coaching philosophy change. Defense first yields great results for goalies. Keenen isn't run and gun, but he's no Sutterite trap-master either. More fun for us!, less fun for Kipper. I do very much agree with your assessment this time Kent because I think you're not trying to be as provocative with Kipper as maybe some other posts. He is not playing the goaltending we want ie. .930 save percentage and lights out every night. A downturn in more than just numbers? yeah probably. BUT I think he can still win loads of games, steal a few and win series' perhaps. Vezina or Conn-Smythe? not bloody likely. One thing in goaltending now is a huge youth movement. MOST of the goalies playing full value right now make under a million dollars a year?!?! It would be interesting to see how Irving/Keetley/Cu Mac would handle the load if Kipper fell ill, knock on wood. I don't think any of them are ready. BUT boy oh boy are Mason, Price, Renne, Smith et al. It does bring up an interesting question. What is full value for a goalie these days. Wins like Fuhr? or Stats like Hasek? I'm not willing to bail on Kipper yet, he is a high quality work horse on a one goalie team at his worst and that's worth quite a bit of gold.
What is full value for a goalie these days.
Which is the question, especially in light of your hypothesis that goalie performance is team based. Is Kipper a capable starting goalie in this league? Yes. Is that worth 5.833M per year though? What's more, if goalies can't be much better than the team around, ie; if their stats are so elastic as to jump from record setting to below average due largely to a shift in team philosophy/make-up, then does it make sense to invest a bunch of cap space in a 'tender?
I would have to say no. Detroit seems to have the right idea, therefore: seek out capable, if unspectacular, goalies who can be had cheaply and then savings the money on the skaters.
The only time this probably isn't true is when you have an honest-to-god elite guy in net (Luongo) I think. My point, all along, has been that Kipper has fallen out of that realm these days.
*spend the money
Maybe I should do a guest post, or this can add to your half-way point analysis but I'm looking at a slightly scary trend here for goalies.
Top 11 performance vs pay
1 Mason CBJ .934 13W 1.82 1,388 min $847,000
2 Anderson FLA .933 9W 2.34 1,074 min $550,000
3 Hiller ANA .933 10W 2.06 992 min $1.3mil.
4 Thomas BOS .932 16W 2.13 1,382 min $1.1mil
5 Fernandez BOS .932 13W 1.96 1,040 min $4.3mil
6 Backstrom MIN .929 19W 2.14 1,933 min $3.1mil
7 Luongo VAN .928 11W 2.17 1,076 min $6.7mil
8 Khabibulin CHI .924 12W 2.39 1,155 min $6.75mil
9 Clemmensen NJD .922 15W 2.25 1,415 min $433,000
10 Roloson EDM .921 11W 2.60 1,246 min $3.7mil
11 Price MTL .921 16W 2.30 1,514 min $2.2? (850,000?)
AND The Bottom Dwellers:
27 Nabokov SJS .906 21W 2.55 1,721 min $5.375mil
28 Fleury PIT .905 12W 2.92 1,395:57 min $5.0mil
32 Lehtonen ATL .902 4W 3.37 962 min $3.0mil
34 Biron PHI .902 13W 2.94 1,470 min $3.5mil
35 Kipper CGY .901 24W 2.86 2,226 min $5.83mil
38 Mason STL .901 3W 3.15 933 min $3.0mil
39 Theodore WSH .896 14W 2.88 1,352 min $4.5mil
41 Legace STL .888 11W 3.23 1,170 min $2.15mil
42 Toskala TOR .884 14W 3.27 1,946 min $4.0mil
43 Turco DAL .882 16W 3.17 2,061 min $5.7mil
44 Osgood DET .880 13W 3.12 1,191 min $1.47mil
I removed a couple of the obvious underpaid under performers, but it seems that the guys at the bottom are the one-man show group. Older and heavily paid. I don't know if this means anything, actually I wish I got the last 30minutes of my life back.
We can say only two "elite veteran" goalies are playing full value. Luongo (who is hurt) and Khabibulin (how shares duties with another 6mil dollar man. Thomas and Backstrom are up for new contracts soon, but Thomas seems to be the best dollar for dollar goalie right now. Vezina anyone?
The bottom dwellers are a who's who of who used to be great. Most of them have a few things in common: 1. They are the whipping boys of the team
2. They play a lot of minutes
3. They get a large number off wins (except the Finnish prodigy Lehtonen)
and
4. They are horribly overpaid
So, do with this what you will, maybe it's all meaningless or maybe we should just stop paying goalies a lot of money. Who knows?
BUT when I look at this,
I can say that wins count for a lot. Remove four ugly games by the Flames. 0-6 Van, 7-6 Nsh, 1-6 Chi and 1-6 Sjs and Kipper comes in @
34GP 892SV .914% 23W 8L 3OT 82GA 2.43GAA 976SA 3SO 2,026:35min
.914% would be 15th in the league
2.43GAA would be 14th
and 23W first
and 2026 minutes second
Maybe those early games Kipper was a symptom of the problem, but not the problem. Just saying.
BTW, I'm Lawrence...I just don't know how to do an Identity
Iggy clearly needs to shoot the puck alot more.....he's 70+ shots off pace from last season.
In two of his three 90+ point seasons he had over 300 shots. He is roughly on pace for the same number of shots and points as 06/07. I think it's a positive thing that he's scoring at a rate that will have him clear 90 points again...it's just frustrating that it comes in bunches and not so much at EV. Who knows, if he started firing the puck more maybe he'd crack 100 for the first time.
As for Kipper.....I love that guy....but I don't have the same confidence in him as years past...but as mentioned previously I think it's partially due to the coaching style. He's not as good as he used to be...but he's still damn good and I'm still happy we have him. I've seen him catch alot of crappy breaks this year too, so I don't think his GAA and Save% are as telling as they appear.
After the biggest win of the season so far, you guys are a real bunch of downers. Yes, the team has its issues, what team doesn't. some have more than others obviously. The great thing about the team right now, is they are finding ways to win and that's all they need to do...
We're discussing a topic that has been contentious since the start of season. Im glad the Flames are winning, but this is a legit issue nonetheless. The org has nearly 6M tied up in a goalie for the next X amount of years, and the guy is putting up just average stats (and has been for some time). I think it's interesting and will pursue it with the others who are commenting here, regardless if it's a "downer" topic.
I have lots of good things to say about this team as well, but I'll probably save it for the pre-game against the Islanders. I may even compliment Bertuzzi! *wretch*
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