Lyle Richardson reports via the hockey news that the Florida Panthers are thinking about keeping Jay Bouwmeester for their run at a play-off berth.
That seems to make sense I guess. Bouwmeester is a key component to the club and the Panthers are within striking distance of the post season for the first time since Y2K. Im sure the fanbase could use some good news and the org could use the income.
Problem being, it's probably the wrong move.
We know that Bouwmeester is fleeing for greener pastures come July. That has been as obvious as the ugly on Amy Winehouse since he signed his one-year extension as a RFA this past summer. Keeping Jay-Bo past the deadline = nothing in return = poor asset management.
On the other hand, a player with his abilities and pedigree could land Florida an extremely attractive package of players and draft picks if prior trade deadline rentals are anything go by. Especially attractive if "zilch" is the alternative.
And let's be clear on this: Florida needs an infusion of talent and futures pretty badly. Play-off aspirations or not, they are still a lousy hockey team. Their top scoring forward might end up with 60 points by the end of the year. Nathan Horton is a total bust as a Jokinen fill-in (and I don't consider those big shoes to fill). And, as you can see by the link, they have been grossly out-played over the course of the year at ES. The lone factor holding the Panthers in the race is that unsustainable .933 ES SV%. Should that uncanny number continue for the rest of the season and squeeze the cats into the play-offs, I have no doubt they'd be swept aside in short order by whoever they'd end up facing in the first round. And I DO doubt that SV% sticks around to make them look like a moderately okay-club next season.
No, if Martin is at all interested in making his team a winner in the long-run, then he'll press for the best package possible for Jay-Bo come March. The kid is having himself a good year, so the offers should be generous. If you want to see what selling the future short for a brief play-off appearance looks like, on the other hand, take a gander at the beleaguered Don Waddell and his pitiable creation up in Atlanta.
19 comments:
Hey, sorry, this is really off topic, but Kent who is on your mock Canadian olympic team? I trust your judgement over my own. I'd say:
Iginla-Thornton-Carter
E. Staal-Lecavalier-Heatley
Nash-Crosby-Getzlaf
Doan-Savard-Richards
Extra: Way too many natural centers, so maybe a guy like Derek Roy or even Brenden Morrow if he recovers? Maybe even Cammy? And we only have 1.5 Frenchmen (Vinny, I only count Savard as half french because he is defensively sound and speaks normally), so what about St Louis, Gagne or Briere? Or the daywalker Perry? Tavares (probably too young) or Toews? Smyth and Sakic can go to hell as well. Well not Sakic, but Smyth for sure. Hate that guy.
Bouwmeester-Phaneuf
Green-Weber
Burns-Keith
Extra: Regehr? (in case shutdown sucks, Pronger blows now, but not sure about Souray or the other daywalker Campbell, and Niedermayer? I think Jovo is done too, same with Brewer and Mccabe. We just need guys to crack Russian skulls. And what about Dan Boyle and Rob Blake? Both are having wicked seasons. The defense picture is a LOT messier I think...
Goalie will be Luongo so nothing there. Turco and Brodeur will probably be backups.
And also at forward, Marleau and Spezza are good, but choke in big games. Maybe Marleau will earn a spot with a Monster playoff this year..... Anyways what's everyone else's take?
The Florida Panthers are almost in a no-win situation with Bouwmeester. But I do wonder: is it THAT much of a sure thing they cannot just overpay him somewhat drastically? Right now I'd be flying in his favorite flavor of Ben & Jerry's and bringing his car into West Coast Customs. Free rub'n'tugs for him and his friends. Whatever he wants.
I think making the playoffs, even in getting destroyed in the first round "NY Islanders" style, would make a difference for Florida. Almost like it would for Columbus. Simply put, the Panthers need to prove that they can at least make the playoffs to improve their chances of staying in Florida.
How much longer can that team miss the playoffs by "this much"?
Well, James, I mentioned Atlanta at the end there as an abject lesson. Waddell paid very deaqrly for his 4 and out a few years back - and it hasn't gotten the franchise anywhere. Quite the opposite, in fact.
The club is a step away from terrible with Bouwmeester on it. If they make the post-season, it will be because of bounces and little else. Their best option is to get the most out of that asset (and thereby improve the team) before he buggers off.
KLC - I haven't given the Olympic team much thought as of now. Im guessing the picture will change based on how the players perform for the rest of the season and next. Your roster looks fairly complete on a first glance though.
Florida's not THAT bad a team, they've been a tenacious matchup for a couple of years now. Just as losing Bouw would make them a non-factor in the playoff race, adding a single free agent of Bouw's status would make them a division contender. Like the Kings, they've got a lot stashed under the driver's seat that the mainstream media just doesn't show us.
I think that he'll stay on if they make the playoffs AND offer him an inflated salary AND make obvious moves toward getting better for next season. There's a good vibe in Miami, and I'm not sure Bouwmeester wants to be the guy that sinks an entire franchise.
Just as losing Bouw would make them a non-factor in the playoff race, adding a single free agent of Bouw's status would make them a division contender.
The Panthers will be a non-factor in the play-offs with or without him. Only their other worldly goaltending is keeping them afloat right now. They have average or worse special teams and they give up the most shots on net per game in the league. A team who gets outshot so completely at ES to be 200+ points underwater by the CORSI metric is probably a few steps away from being a genuine threat.
As such, I think it would take a great deal more than one UFA - even at Bouw's quality - to allow them to challenge the Capitals for the SE division.
To add further evidence, Hockey Numbers has Florida's expected ES GD at -12 so far. Good for 27th in the league.
correct me if im wrong but using the same logic then shouldnt Sutter trade Camm at the dealine? I dont think they can keep him and thats a lot of assets they are losing out on.
Calgary has a chance to make some noise these playoffs though. Florida will probably only squeak in and get smoked by boston, washington or new jersey. cammy is instrumental for any chance that flames may or may not have
It's not a clear cut case either way: time, big sweaty wads of money and a decent playoff run can change minds quickly. Of course, losing your last All-Star caliber player can be even more of a problem than a playoff run would be a possible solution.
Florida obviously has some reason to think "now" instead of later, too (if you recall, the struggling franchise had to fire some front office employees). How long can a fan base (however small it is) settle for prospects? How much patience can fans show in a non-traditional market?
It really could be a lose-lose for Florida. As many reasons for why not, there's plenty of logic to why. From a pure hockey viewpoint, it doesn't make sense to keep Bouwmeester. From a contextual situation it gets pretty sticky.
Again, I see where you're coming from, Kent ... especially since the Flames benefited from a star-for-prospect move (a certain near-HoFer for the Flames' all-time goal leader). It's just a real headache. Glad I'm not the Panthers GM.
How unsustainable is that save percentage. If we're just talking about even strength that doesn't look too out of line for Vokoun, though I could easily be wrong.
How unsustainable is that save percentage. If we're just talking about even strength that doesn't look too out of line for Vokoun, though I could easily be wrong.
Even the truly great goaltenders have trouble staying at 92 percent, so Kent's absolutely right about 93 being a tough sell. It does, however, seem like Florida doesn't see much of a dropoff from Vokoun to Anderson. (From a Florida novice's point of view)
correct me if im wrong but using the same logic then shouldnt Sutter trade Camm at the dealine? I dont think they can keep him and thats a lot of assets they are losing out on.
Not even a little bit. The crux of my argument is that the Panthers aren't really a play-off team so keeping Bouwmeester "to make the play-offs" only to lose him for nothing in the off-season is poor asset management.
In Cammalleri's case, the Flames have a real chance to make some noise in the post-season, not to mention a chance to sign him in the off-season if they do.
Conversely, I would be "for" dealing Cammalleri for parts if the Flames were in the Panthers position of being a bubble team dependent on bounces and prayers to make the dance.
The Panthers will be a non-factor in the play-offs with or without him.
We won't know that until they play the games. I don't think too many fans were picking the Oilers for the '06 Finals.
But even if they get knocked out in 4 games, just making the playoffs is a huge step for that franchise. The revenues alone are worth the price of overpaying for a free agent. Right now they're selling ticket packages with a guarantee that they make the playoffs or the buyer gets free tickets next season, so they've hedged their bets too much in that direction to simply give up and accept another season in 10th place.
I think it would be much easier for the Panthers franchise to try and retain Bouwmeester and snag an additional UFA like Gaborik or Kovalev, and take a shot at actually selling tickets and generating TV revenue, than to swap a quarter for three dimes and basically restart the rebuilding process.
This morning they're in the 8th seed ahead of the mediocre Canes and Pens... why sabotage what's been an overachieving season so far?
I think If I were the gm of Florida I would deal Buowmester tomorrow. They cant resign him and I think the return they will receive doesnt necessarily leave them out of the mix, it could push them further into it even. Im surprised we dont hear more about this, likely speaking to what a fool Murray is, but why on earth isnt anyone saying Spezza for Buowmester and 2nd round draft pick? This is a win-win hockey deal, the draft pick would simply be because Spezza is under contract long term. Ottawas glaring need right now is a #1 defenseman (goalie close behind but that deal will have to wait till the off-season likely), Floridas is a #1 forward (centers even better). Spezza as a return shouldnt leave u on the outside looking in come playoff time, although it is a bit of a risk I know. They still have one of the better defensive cores with or without Buowmester in the line-up so I dont understand y this wont happen...
Tom, anything's possible, but betting on 1.) making any kind of run in the play-offs and then 2.) retaining Bouwmeester AND landing another notable UFA in the summer is betting on some long, long odds. Don Wadell sank his team into the leagues basement via the very same route and the org got all of two play-off home games out of it. Now the post-season is once again a distant dream.
I can certainly understand managements desperation to make the post-season for once. All too well, in fact, being a Flames fan that waited through 7 years of suck. But the smart move here is to deal a valuable asset that has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention of return in the summer. Besides, who says that moving Bouwmeester would sink the Panthers play-off aspirations? If they can get a decent package in return (say, a couple of roster players and a prospect/pick) then they could probably survive the last 18 or whatever games without him...especially since their blueline is their relative strength in terms of depth and it's unholy netminding that is blazing the post-season trail anyhow.
No, if Martin is at all interested in making his team a winner in the long-run, then he'll press for the best package possible for Jay-Bo come March.
Ya, but if he wants to keep his job over the summer then he'll keep Bouwmeester.
Kent, everything I've said so far is moot if Bouwmeester really won't sign with the Panthers under any circumstances. I've heard that he's warmed up to the idea of staying there, provided they make strides toward becoming a contender. If those reports are false... well, they'd be pretty stupid not to go ahead and take the most desperate trade offer that comes their way. It's true that they could probably be a playoff team in the short run if they got good value on the trade, though I think their long-term prospects would be much worse.
Hopefully the Panthers are talking to him and understand whether he's seriously entertaining their offers -- if he's giving them positive signals, I think it's better he stays. But if that happens, they're practically obligated to be agressive on the UFA market. Which is good, because they're really much closer to being a division contender than they get credit for. Likewise, I hope Jay has his eyes open and understands that he would probably have his number retired in Florida if he stuck around long enough to lead them to a Final.
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