Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Looking for Bargains? Pick-up Mueller

Darren Dreger released a top 10 "most likely to be trade" list recently, which PD fisks here. There are potentially a number of interesting rental names there, but the one sneaky value guy may be the Coyotes Peter Mueller. The kid made the big club as a teen back in 2007 and scored 22 goals as a rookie. Now, there was probably some nice circumstances and bounces involved (since that's his best single season output thus far), but anyone who makes the show as a teen and puts up 20+ goals on a bad team is no joke.

Muellers results stink this year - 3 goals, 13 points. According to Five For Howling (linked in the PD story above), his play has been "disastrous". Now, when I see results that poor and read comments like that, the first thing I check is the percentages - especially with young players who have managed nice numbers at a young age already.

And, not surprisingly, Mueller's PDO is the worst amongst regular skaters on the club at 96.3. His on-ice SH% (6.8) is ghastly. Only Shane Doan and Matthew Lombardi have a worse on-ice SV%. In contrast, Mueller's other underlying numbers are solid. He's in the black in terms of possession (corsi is +8.34/60) and his level of competition is roughly middle of the road.

In short, the kids getting jobbed by the bounces more than anything. He's in line for a correction down the road. On top of that, he's a functional NHL player at just 21 years old - those are extremely rare, valuable commodities. So while he may not look like a viable "rental player" who will help a team win a play-off series right now, he's probably the type of guy who is can help a team win a bunch down the road.

5 comments:

robert cleave said...

Having lousy boxcars would depress his RFA value as well. He'd be a cheap developmental piece for a team if Phoenix doesn't want the moon for him.

Kent W. said...

Yup. Classic buy low situation. He can only get better from this point on.

Anonymous said...

Someone link this to D. Sutter. I'd love to get another 'dark horse' player.

-SmellOfVictory

how to ollie said...

Excellent post and writing style. Bookmarked.

longge said...

Since ugg boots introduction lot many changes have been done to the ugg model. The campaign started with the punch line: A little less hurt. The uggs campaign made a strong appeal in the minds of the people with using UGG Australia in the promotional campaigns. Most of the ugg suede boots models use a cushioned heel at the bottom that ugg suede is observable from the side.