Comments on Five Hole Fanatics: Reactions: Early season curiosities

Detroit's numbers are interesting. As you not...

2009-10-19T14:29:44.318-06:00

Detroit's numbers are interesting. As you note, their shot differential is unimpressive, but their corsi numbers still are. Basically, it looks like they've had a boatload of blocked shots against. How sustainable is that?

The other thing I find peculiar about the Wings is Henrik Zetterberg, whose personal corsi is way below his standards. He's been playing with Bertuzzi, and it would be convenient to attribute the numbers to that, but having watched each game, I don't think that explains all or even most of the decline. He really hasn't been playing near his normal level.

I guess I don't see the Leafs as being as good...

2009-10-18T19:21:56.843-06:00

I guess I don't see the Leafs as being as good as you do. From the outset I had them pegged as about 7th last in the league so I think they're closer to being in the lottery than they are to being in the playoffs.

I also like a lot of what Atlanta did in the off season and expect they'll be better. They're sure to regress from their current pace but I think they have a real chance at the playoffs. I know they get outshot but the context in which it happens doesn't seem so bad. Kovalchuk's line tends to get outshot against middle comp and I'm pretty confident he can out% them somewhat. Armstrong's line takes on the toughs and the bulk of the dzone assignments and comes up with a + in the Corsi department. If they could get a bit better performance from their top line and "soft minutes" lines they could be in business.

I had them outside the play-offs too Scott, but pu...

2009-10-18T17:31:03.267-06:00

I had them outside the play-offs too Scott, but pundits are lining up to say the Leafs are a lottery team. I seriously doubt that. How much they turn around will depend on if Gustavsson is the real deal and the degree to which the percentages rebound for them I think. Anyways, they were an outshooting team last year and they are so far this season - that has to start mattering at some point.

Arik, Minny has looked terrible for the exact opposite reason the Avs have looked good - the hockey gods are being cruel. They're 10th in the league in terms of shots against, have a SD of +2, but have only scored 15 goals on 217 shots (6.9 SH%). To put that in perspective, the Rangers had the worst SH% last year at 7.5. I'm sure things will turn around for them.

I agree with most of what you've got down here...

2009-10-18T16:13:49.336-06:00

I agree with most of what you've got down here but have a question about the Leafs in particular. I "don't buy it" in the sense that I'm not about to argue that they'll have a 10-20 point season but I still think they're a bad team. I had them at 12th in the East to start the year. How much of a turnaround do you expect from them?

I don't see the Avs finishing dead last NW, pa...

2009-10-18T14:33:53.980-06:00

I don't see the Avs finishing dead last NW, partly because of how terribly Minnesota has looked, and partly because Cranderson (who I've had a man-crush on for a while now) is a great goaltender who's also used to playing on a very bad team that gives up a lot of shots. And that can go a long way.
I agree, they definitely won't finish 1st in the NW, but they won't be dead last either. I wouldn't be surprised to see them outplay the Oilers even. I'd also be very happy to see that.