Comments on Five Hole Fanatics: New strengths and new weaknesses

I think you've hit on one of the Flames problems, ...

2008-07-10T13:52:00.000-06:00

I think you've hit on one of the Flames problems, Greg - too many centers. If Cammalleri plays pivot, that moves Langkow down, which moves Lombardi over or down and Conroy...uh...down to the fourth line? With Primeau, I guess...another center.

Keenan's claims aside, I really dont see Cammalleri playing center. The Flames are flush down the middle, but weak on the wings (which is where he played all year with the Kings anyways).

As for the shut-down trio, I'd like to see Conroy occupy this role over Lombardi. Partly because Conroy did it last year and was reasonably good at it and partly because he can't really contribute offensively anymore. Lombardi, on the other hand, could probably put some points on the board in the right type of circumstances.

I definitely agree with you on point #1.

My...

2008-07-10T12:30:00.000-06:00

I definitely agree with you on point #1.

My only problem with #2 though is I keep hearing that Keenan wants to use Cammalleri at center. If that's true, then you've got (presumably) Langkow and Iginla on the first line (which is great), but then Cammalleri anchoring Lombardi and either Bertuzzi or Boyd. That line doesn't look to have enough finish to capably expose a soft underbelly, and defensively would give it up like a drunk prom date.

I'd maybe drop Boyd off that 2nd line and try to see if Bourque, Langkow, and Lombardi can form a shut down line, to free up Iggy's line. Lombo impressed the heck out of me with his defensive play last year, and I think if Bourque can complete that line, I honestly think they could skate against anyone's top line, as long as they don't have to contribute offensively too (although they could if their match up didn't involve a Zetterberg or Thorton type line). Glencross could also be an interesting alternative to Bourque... he and Lombo on the same line could drive the opposition to fits with their speed.

If Keenan does use Camalleri on the wing, then there's other options, but if it's at center, I really hope it's with Iggy. And then I also hope we sign an extension this offseason instead of waiting for him to pad his stats feeding Iginla first.

Interesting thoughts Greg. Some of the potential i...

2008-07-10T09:25:00.000-06:00

Interesting thoughts Greg. Some of the potential issues with a Cammalleri/Iggy/Bert line -

1.) There's not a single "heavy lifting" unit in the top 6 if Langkow moves down. Which doesn't work, unless the Flames create some sort of Pahlsson checking line out of the bottom 6. I wouldn't want to see Bert/Cammy/Iggy take on, say, the Zetterberg line - would you? Ditto for Langkow/Lombardi/Boyd(?).

2.) I really think Lombardi should be a center this year. His numbers dont reflect it, but I saw a lot of progress out of Lombo by the end of the season last year, particularly in the "little things" a center needs to do at both ends of the rink to be successful. If Langkow moves down, Lombo would be moves the wing - and now we have to watch him learn a new position all over again.

That said, this is all supposition. Who knows how it'll all shake down in reality.

I'm starting to think that a top line of Bertuzzi-...

2008-07-10T08:05:00.000-06:00

I'm starting to think that a top line of Bertuzzi-Cammalleri-Iginla makes the most sense. There's 2 defensive liabilities there, but Iginla himself almost overcomes that, and assuming there is some kind of chemistry between Bertuzzi and Iginla, they should be able to score at a very good rate.

That leaves Langkow to center the second line with Lombardi and ? (Boyd?) on his wings. I would think Langkow would still be good for ~60 points or so, and both him and Lombardi are far from defensive liabilities, so you don't always have to rely on Iginla to carry the team both offensively AND defensively.

That's a good point. Another thing that will impro...

2008-07-09T15:35:00.000-06:00

That's a good point. Another thing that will improve the Flames SP differential: An average Kipper. I think his SV% on the PK was something obscenely bad (think 67%) 6-8 weeks into the season. It was, by far, the worst SV% of any starter in the league at the time.

Probably some team effects in there, but nothing that explains how much worse he was than everyone else (such as tenders on demonstrably worse teams).

If Kipper can be better (ie: not horrible) for the first two months, the club will be better for it. Not having Eriksson on the PK at all should help.

Talking about weaknesses, I want to just harp on h...

2008-07-09T15:01:00.000-06:00

Talking about weaknesses, I want to just harp on how bad the Flames were at special teams last year and especially at Penalty Killing one more time. The Flames allowed 72 PP goals last year, Only Toronto, Atlanta, and Carolina were worse. If you look at these goals as a percentage of the total goals allowed (or what i call the, "c'mon guys, you're killin' me" stat) Calgary's PP goals allowed were 32.1% of their total goals allowed, only Anaheim and Boston had higher percentages of PP goals allowed/total goals allowed. (and in Anaheim's case thats mostly because they let in so few total goals).

In a goal differential context:

(PPgoals-SHgoals against)-(PPgoals allowed-SH goals)

or: Special teams good things minus special teams bad things.

Calgary Special teams differential was -12, again only 3 teams were worse; Toronto, Atlanta and the Islanders.

Minnesota, the team that won the NW division and finished 4 points in front of us, had a Special Teams differential of +7 or 19 goals better than the Flames. Thats an awfully big hole that Even Strength excellence has to overcome.

The majority of the problem is that the Flames just take too many penalties. A lot of those are hooking, holding, interference penalties that arise because the slower Flames can't keep up and are out of position and have to take a penalty to prevent clear chances. The improvement in the Flames' bottom 6 hopefully will start to offset some of this damage. The Flames appear to be younger and faster and lets keep our fingers crossed that Rene Bourque can fortify the PK this season.