Comments on Five Hole Fanatics: Defensemen and shot Prevention

I don't think your idea would be negated if Ga...

2009-07-31T06:39:01.701-06:00

I don't think your idea would be negated if Gabe (or anyone else) can demonstrate that Sv% can be impacted by players other than the goalie on a consistent basis. Not at all. Only that it would make the overall analysis of defensive ability more complicated since some guys, conceivably, might allow more shots than average but fewer than average scoring chances per shot while others might allow fewer shots than average but higher than average scoring chances per shot. Anyway, this is the link to Gabe's recent work in this area:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/blog/2009/07/do-defensemen-influence-save-percentage.html

It's interesting stuff and certainly calls for an explanation. To be honest, I'm a little befuddled by it at this point.

Thanks Scott. I may apply this method to the entir...

2009-07-30T12:08:58.060-06:00

Thanks Scott. I may apply this method to the entire Flames team at some point, just to see how things come out. In addition, if Gabe somehow susses out significant player contribution to SV% (link?), I don't know if it would necessarily negate what I'm allegedly capturing here anyways: afterall, deterring high quality shots as well as shots in general are both aspects of defensive play.

I agree that context is needed to make this type of thing meaningful: not just quality of competition and zone starts, but league-wide total shot rates, team shot rates, etc.

I do think that you're doing some good work he...

2009-07-30T12:03:04.643-06:00

I do think that you're doing some good work here Kent (in terms of measuring defensive ability) and that it would work just as well for forwards as it does for defencemen.

The assumption that players do not have a substantial effect on Sv% is being challenged by Gabe right now (I disagree with him) but assuming that your assumption there is correct the next logical place to look is shot volume.

I'm not sure what value the work you're doing will have until the contextual numbers are factored in, but this is certainly a good place to start.

Shep: I got the ice time totals from NHL.com. O...

2009-07-30T09:49:25.932-06:00

Shep:

I got the ice time totals from NHL.com.

One of the issues here may be the fact that Vic's site counts all ES situations (3on3, 4on4 etc). I don't know if "even strength" at NHL.com means all ES or just 5on5.

Anon:

Appreciated. Feel free to voice your disagreements in the future - I'm far from infallible so other viewpoints are appreciated.

With Phaneuf, I'd say injury is probably a significant contributor. If he improves this season, we'll know for sure.

i used es toi data from stats.hockeyanalysis.com a...

2009-07-30T09:05:49.267-06:00

i used es toi data from stats.hockeyanalysis.com and shots from vics site and got these results for columbus d-men:

commodore: 50.1/60 (1st qc)
hejda: 49.1/60 (1st qc)
klesla 47.2/60 (3rd qc)
tyutin 41.7/60 (2nd qc)
backman 40.6/60 (5th qc)
russel 38.8/60 (6th qc)
methot 38.6/60 (4th qc)

The data seems to back what we saw last year. I ha...

2009-07-30T08:01:08.953-06:00

The data seems to back what we saw last year. I have to wonder how much of Phaneuf's numbers are due to injury? Can you run the year prior and compare?

BTW, love your blogs. Don't always agree but you always have an opinion based on reason and not emotion. Keep it up.

hmm where do you get the es toi totals from? stat...

2009-07-30T07:48:20.974-06:00

hmm where do you get the es toi totals from?

stats.hockeyanalysis has everyone listed with a slightly lower number than on your list.