Comments on Five Hole Fanatics: Flames expected goal differentials and Kipper

This feels a lot like a Brett Favre point. He'...

2009-01-16T13:09:00.000-07:00
This feels a lot like a Brett Favre point. He's clutch because he had a lot of game-winning drives... except a good amount of the time he was the one that got the team into the situation of being down in the last quarter.

That's a great comparison. However, that is a team game. You have to take into account dropped balls, sloppy route running, defensive pressure allowed to get through the line. Just like You have to account for bad bounces, sloppy defensive chances and quality scoring chances. By saying Kipper only made the "big save(s)" is to say he always let in a softie prior to that (which I don't believe has been the case most of the time).

I.E. SJ's two goals
1. Scrambled play where Clowe gotopen in the slot and let a beauty rip past kipper.
2. Bad bounce, defelection of Thornton's shot off of Dion's stick and into the net.

All this kinda supports Kent's theory on the money being spent on the players around the goalie instead of the goalie. It also shrivels the importance of a SO, seeing as it could have been how the team played as opposed to the goalie earning them. Same with blowouts.

But I guess I'll drop this all since the "big save" is a... theory/label. And the gentle ribbing of the clutch save comment :P.

P.S. Sorry to be beating a dead horse on this post (since it's out of date and irrelevant), I just don't have the time to make a post right away all the time.
Go Flames Go.

Keeping the tying/winning goal out in the final...

2009-01-14T10:50:00.000-07:00
Keeping the tying/winning goal out in the final 10 min with the big save(s), regardless of the score is a attribute that some players have, and some don't.

This feels a lot like a Brett Favre point. He's clutch because he had a lot of game-winning drives... except a good amount of the time he was the one that got the team into the situation of being down in the last quarter.

The problem, beyond arguing whether clutch does or does not exist, is that Kipper is making 'big saves' only because he got his team into that position in the first place. A better goaltender would win a game 4-2. Kipper lets in the goal that makes it 4-3 and then gets lauded for not letting in the goal making it 4-4.

Clutch is clutch. I agree with what you're saying,...

2009-01-13T21:26:00.000-07:00
Clutch is clutch. I agree with what you're saying, to a point. Keeping the tying/winning goal out in the final 10 min with the big save(s), regardless of the score is a attribute that some players have, and some don't.

I wish I had an example to give, but in all honesty I only have my siv like memory to rely on.

The "big save" is a narrative device, I think - a ...

2009-01-13T14:58:00.000-07:00
The "big save" is a narrative device, I think - a myth. Fuhr made "big saves" because his team out-scored the bad guys a lot. If the Flames weren't scoring like they are, Kipper's mediocre SV% would be a lot more relevant to the clubs success and suddenly no one notices the saves anymore (just the goals that go by).

As an example - Kipper let in 4 goals against the Oilers recently. Presumably, though, he made a number saves on difficult shots in that game (ie; big saves). Only, of course, they are only considered big saves because his team scored 6 goals and ended up winning.

Kipper, is like the modern day Fuhr? Makes the big...

2009-01-13T12:46:00.000-07:00
Kipper, is like the modern day Fuhr? Makes the big save, lets a couple more in.

The games they do win, he usually makes a big save (sometimes of the goal robbing variety). The games they lose, he usually lets a floater in.

I dunno if that's deserving of the Vezina, but it seems to be the goalie Kipper is evolving into, which I really don't mind, as long as it gets the job done. Plus he has the potential to get hot.

Lol Im sure that last P.S. was directed partial...

2009-01-12T14:31:00.000-07:00
Lol Im sure that last P.S. was directed partially at me as I get pretty heated over it but I gotta say that is a really good post.

Actually, I didn't have any commenters in particular in mind...I just know it's been a contentious issue since day one around here, so I figured I'd head off any indignant sputtering at the pass.

Im not certainly not hoping or cheering for Kipper to be just average...it's just, that's the way the prevailing info looks to me at this point.

Lol Im sure that last P.S. was directed partially ...

2009-01-12T13:38:00.000-07:00
Lol Im sure that last P.S. was directed partially at me as I get pretty heated over it but I gotta say that is a really good post. You backed it all up with numbers and am now starting to see it from your perspective (and Detroits for that matter). Problem is Kipper is around for 5 more years...

I can't get around it either Matt, and I think a l...

2009-01-12T12:41:00.000-07:00
I can't get around it either Matt, and I think a lot of this Kipper love comes from favorable memories of his previous dominance.

If we could somehow erase the collective recollections of everyone that saw him from 03-06, would there be anyone suggesting that Kipper is an MVP or Vezina candidate this year based solely on his performance and stats? I really, really doubt it.

There was a comment at LT's place recently by someone who noted that a reputation in the league, once earned, is very difficult to drop and tends to color the perceptions of observers going forward. That sounds about right to me and probably appropriate here.

Did you happen to be listening to FAN 960 on Frida...

2009-01-12T12:31:00.000-07:00
Did you happen to be listening to FAN 960 on Friday afternoon? Eric Francis and Rob Kerr were looking at the first half, and (for a while) talking about their MVPs (top 3).

EF said ~ "as of late Kipper has been 'very competent', but I wouldn't go any further than that". Kerr otoh had Kipper *as his MVP*.

I'd pass this off as "Well, Kerr's a goalie himself, whaddya expect", but then Darren Dreger on TSN last night (not that, unlike Kerr, I give an ounce of weight to his opinion) had Kipper as his Vezina Winner here at the halfway point. Vezina!!!

There are enough people who are 100% Kipper backers (including, it would seem, the coach) that I can't totally dismiss the love. But the question that needs to be answered by these folks, I think, is, "Say this was an elite team of skaters but only getting average goaltending -- what would that look like? Whether that be W-L, or GAA and SV% or whatever?"

I think the answer that's most likely to be true is "a lot like it looks right now". Good record, middling SV%, identical stats for the backup, etc. But maybe I'm missing something.