On Dale Tallon

His firing was considered an inevitability back when Bowman was hired, but it sounds like the Hawks have legitimate beefs with his management - meaning the pink slip wasn't simply a formality.

The RFA situation was a very obvious, very public F-up. The team is lucky he managed to sign the guys in question.

Then there's the Martin Havlat stuff. If you don't have Twitter or aren't following Havlat, here's some of his most recent "tweets":

Lot's of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn't the fans know the truth? It's your loyalty, season ticket money and emotions here.

I guess everyone saw what happened to Dale....yes, the story is starting to come out but it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.

Yikes. Some serious bad blood there, despite the fact Tallon signed Havlat to a big, long term deal the first time. It's going to be fascinating when Martin spills the beans because NHL players are usually so tight-lipped.

EDIT - Looks like I've misread the situation. According to Mirtle and some of Havlat's more recent tweets, Tallon apparently wasn't at all the target of his discontent.
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Flames sign McGrattan, perpetuate fraud.

Enforcers are the great placebo of the NHL. They persist because everyone thinks they do something positive (intimidate other teams, "protect" star players) even though there isn't a shred of evidence that they actually accomplish anything.

The goon in the modern NHL is a castrated beast. He bleeds goals against and his every move on the ice is tracked by nervous eyes and quick whistles. Fines and suspensions are the primary fruit of his labor. He is rendered impotent by two simple letters: "no". Pests laugh in the goons face. All that's left is the occasional, ritualistic dance with another anachronistic brute before the hoots and hollers of the crowd. It's exciting, it's gladiatorial, but...I doubt it helps win hockey games.

EDIT - Just stumbled upon this expansive essay on the subject by E over at Theory of Ice. Similar sentiments are expressed more thoroughly:

The power of a fight to resolve violent tension in a hockey game is, in essence, the ultimate placebo effect. It works not so much because of anything it does in itself, but because of what the concerned parties believe it does. As such, it’s a highly imprecise conflict-resolution technique. While there are many incidents one could point to where two fighters thwacking at each other after a dubious incident provided satisfactory resolution to both teams, one can also point to at least a few very high profile cases where a fight not only failed to resolve tension, but perhaps escalated it. It may indeed be a safety valve of sorts, but it’s a defective one that can fail at any moment. However, whether or not fighting serves the function people claim for it is somewhat secondary, because what matters for professional hockey-fighters is that placebo effect- the belief that it can control the inherent danger, violence, and unpredictability of the game. Surveys occasionally show that players generally like having a fighter on their team- not, perhaps, because he actually makes them any safer, but because he makes them feel somehow safer.
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Defense, Goalies and Perception

If you talk to Avs fans about their lousy season, you'll often hear how awful the defense was. It was obviously a sore spot with the team placing 26th overall in terms of GA.

The strange this is, none of the metrics aside from goals against suggest that Colorado was bad in their own end. The Avalanche actually allowed the 9th fewest shots against per game (29). And it's not like they were giving up break-aways or point blank chances: according to sites that track quality of shots against, Colorado was also in the top third of the league by these metrics: Desjardins has both Avs goalies with expected SV% of .915 (Budaj) and .916 (Raycroft). Nik Backstrom was the only regular starter with a higher expected SV% according to this process.

In addition, Hockey Numbers has COL SQA (shot quality against) at 0.97, good for 7th in the NHL.

The primary culprit, therefore, was the Avs crap-tastic goaltending. Colorado fans can thank the duo of Budaj and Raycroft for the Duchene pick this past entry draft.

It's funny how much blame the COL defense absorbs however. I'm certainly not calling Avs fans thick or unobservant, it's just the nature of perception: on almost every shot on goal, one could probably identify a mistake or missed opportunity to deny the chance. When pucks go in, the "mistakes" are noticed and tallied. If not, then not. For example: Jarome Iginla charges into the zone, one-on-one with Scott Hannan. Jarome makes a strong move left and fires the puck through Hannan's legs at the goal. Outcome one: Budaj makes the save, Hannan is lauded for not allowing Iginla a better chance. Outcome two: the puck sales through Budaj (again!) and Hannan is pilloried for not denying the shot AND providing an unwitting screen. The same play could be perceived differently based solely on the outcome. There's a reason bad goaltenders are coach killers (and good goaltenders make for genius coaches).

Something similar has been happening in Flames circles the last couple of years, although Calgary has been decidedly middling in terms of defensive performance in contrast to Colorado. That said, it'll be instructive to see what happens this year should the projected defensive improvement under Brent Sutter occur but without a concurrent rise in Kipper's SV%.
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Luongo or Schneider. Pick one.

Despite being one year away from unrestricted free agency, reports are saying that goalie Roberto Luongo is discussing a contract extension with the Vancouver Canucks.

CKNW Radio in Vancouver is speculating that Luongo and his agent, Gilles Lupien, are asking for a long-term deal that would be at least five years in length...

From the start of the month.

Versus:

Goaltender Cory Schneider will be given a chance to make the Vancouver Canucks this fall, which could result in recent signing Andrew Raycroft playing for the AHL Manitoba Moose, general manager Mike Gillis said Tuesday.

"Our long-range plans are to keep him as a Vancouver Canuck and having him play here."

From two days ago.

Here's the problem with goalies...it just can't be both, folks. If Vancouver locks up Luongo long-term for big bucks - unless Schneider is happy watching most of the season as a door opener or "seasoning" in the AHL till his mid-20's - I don't think he'll be sticking around.

Ideally, signing Luongo short-term and aggressively developing Schneider in the mean time is the answer. Of course, you can only develop a kid in the minors for so long before he has to be tested against NHL shooters to see if he can make the leap. Problem is, that requires trying to split time with the expensive superstar - a job so thankless the Canucks apparently went out and got the worst (and therefore best) guy they could find to fill it this coming season.

If indeed Gillis manages to get Luongo's name on a long-term deal, it'll be fascinating to see what the Canucks do if Schneider knocks it out of the park in the AHL again - especially considering the trade market for AHL goalies (even really, really good ones) is quite poor.
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Go get Nik Zherdev

Ever since he and his agent pulled a "hold out in Russia for more money" stunt in Columbus, Zherdev's reputation has taken a dive from "burgeoning superstar" to "enigmatic and inconsistent russian". At best. The fact that he had a rough season right after holding out for a big contract didn't help any.

Truth is, Zherdev was still a kid at the time, going through a kid's growing pains. Hell, he's still a kid at 24 years old. In terms of pure talent, he's up there. He's also already scored 20+ goals 3 times in his young career.

His boxcar numbers aren't staggering from last season (23-35-58), but keep in mind the Rangers were a brutal club in terms of offense at both ES and the PP. In contrast Zherdev's advanced ES stats speak pretty highly of him:

QUAL Comp: +0.03 (middling)
Corsi: +14.6 (second)
ESP/60: 2.56 (first)
+/-: +12 (first)

Zherdev outshot and outscored the opposition handily last year, even though most of his team was in the red in terms of plus/minus and he wasn't playing against 4th liners.

Of course, as per the Rangers habit of mismanagement, it looks Zherdev is on his way out of broadway. Apparently the club is annoyed that the kid filed for arbitration like 20 of this peers. Word is, the Rangers will walk away from any award that is too far north of 3M, making Zherdev a free agent. That also means the kid is up for grabs for peanuts prior to arbitration, meaning someone could pick Sather's pocket as long as they're prepared to deal with whatever Zherdev's awarded (or just negotiate a longer term deal with him before the hearing).

There's a good, young player up for grabs here. It'll be interesting to see who's paying attention.
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Ah Murray Murray...oh Baby! You Gotta go...

I wondered aloud a few posts ago whether the Sens Bryan Murray might be the worst GM in the league. That was in response to the 8M Chris Neil contract, but there's a laundry list of F-ups to choose from: the deterioration of his team and blueline since making the finals, the Vermette for Leclaire trade, not to mention the ham fisted manner in which the Dany Heatley situation has been handled.

Now this. Murray has signed 36 year old Alexei Kovalev to a 2 year, $10M deal. Not only is Kovalev old, but, outside of that outlier season built on percentages in 07/08, he's not much of a player at ES. Last year, for example, he may have led the Canadiens in scoring but that had a lot to do with copious amounts of PP time as well as the injuries to Tanguay, Koivu and Lang. He actually placed fifth on the club in terms of ESP/60 (1.78), behind Tanguay, Koivu, Lang and Latendresse. Aside from 07/08, the last time he scored more than 70 points was 02/03. He's a career minus player as well.

Kovalev is still a capable enough as to not be totally worthless, but at that price and at that age, he's a bad bet. Hell, his salary is just 400k less than Daniel Alfredsson who is vastly superior player in my estimation.
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Kings Ascension?

News came out recently the LA Kings have moved a couple of extra pieces for Ryan Smyth. Their top 6 now looks something like this:

Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
Smyth-Stoll-Williams

Scary. I count at least 4 or 5 guys who can take on heavy competition and keep their heads above water. Hell, I'm betting that first line could hang with some of the best in the league. None of those three guys scored at a good rate last year at ES, but they were all in the black in terms of corsi. The Kings outshot the opposition routinely despite being a bottom of the barrel club; it was a terrible ES SH% (a ghastly 6.8) that suppressed everyone's scoring. If this were, say, the Islanders inflicted with injury I'd admit that that pathetic success rate was indicative of a lack of skill - but, the Kings had a decent group of forwards (thus the outshooting) and I think it was just their time to be at the wrong end of the curve.

One guy to keep an eye on in particular is Dustin Brown. He led the league in terms of penalty differential by a country mile last year and he managed to fire 292 shots on net in just 80 games (Iginla had 289 in 82 by way of comparison). His PDO was 98.3, putting him in line for a rebound and the dude is 24 years old. He seems to have things figured out already and he's got a few more years to improve.

There's always a couple of Cinderella stories every NHL season. I half expect the Kings to be the WC's big mover next year, assuming Lombardi doesn't somehow fumble the ball at some point this summer.
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Impressions after day 1

The good:

- Flames sign Bouwmeester. Yeah, the budgeting becomes more difficult going forward, but Bouwmeester is special class of player - already one of the best in the biz and just 25 years old. That's the type of player that you add if you can and make it work around him. Can't complain about the Pardy or Sjostrom signings either.

- Mike Knuble in WAS for 2.8M was a nice find. The big guy is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and can play against almost anyone without being under water. Solid player for a decent price - I was hoping the Flames would go after him with a similar deal.

- Craig Anderson in COL for pocket change is the deal they should have made last year instead of inking FAILcroft. The former Flames 3rd rounder hasn't played a ton the last few years, but his results have been outstanding. He's at the very least a good bet to provide league average goaltending, which is a steal at his price point. If he's any better than thay, the Avs win with this one big time. Low risk, high reward.

- Joel Ward at 3M for two years back in NSH is probably a good move. Did you know Ward had 17 goals last year? Do you know who Joel Ward is at all? He's basically the Preds David Moss - solid all around, scores enough to be useful, etc. These are great players to have for 1.5M.

- I also like Minny's signings of Greg Zanon at 1.93/year and Martin Havlat at 5. I've liked Zanon for awhile even though there's not much offense in him. Good penalty killer, solid and ES, blocks a ton of shots. He firms up any blueline. It's also hard to believe the Wild got Havlat for just 5M a year after the best season of his career. Not only did he finally play most of the games, he was also pressed into shut-down duty by Quenneville and he still slapped the opposition around at ES. Good to see Miikko Koivu finally get some help.

- Sammy Pahlsson probably isn't bad value at 2.65 for the Blue Jackets, who were in the market for a Malholtra replacement. Im guessing Hitchcock is pretty thrilled to have the checking center on his club.

The Bad:

- I laughed out loud when they announced Colton Orr to TOR for 4M over 4 years. Good ol' Burke and his cowbells! What a ridiculous contract for a guy who gets his ass-kicked (figuratively, of course) by other 4th liners.

- Pretty much everything touched by Bob Gainey: he trades a useful bunch of players and prospects to NYR in exchange for one of the worst contracts in the NHL in Scott Gomez. Then he lets Komisarek walk over a seemingly reasonable contract, but signs 35 year old Jaroslav Spacek for 3 years and bunch of cash. Not being satisfied with that, he marginally overpays Mike Cammalleri (5 years, 30M) and then grossly overpays Brian Gionta (5 years, 25M). Yuck. I'd be pretty down if I were a Habs fan today.

- Good to see Sather up to his old tricks. He scores a coup by fooling someone into taking Gomez off his hands...and then re-invests the savings in another bad bet, Marian Gaborik. The guy is fast and a top notch scorer, but there's probably no one in the NHL who is more injury prone. I can't imagine him covering his whole 7.5M salary each year.

- On a similar note, Steve Sullivan for 3.75M/year doesn't make much sense to me either. I'm a fan of Sullivan and think he's effective when healthy, but that's really rare. And the dude is 36 years old. It makes sense to try to sign someone like Sullivan, but only if you can get him at a sizable discount.

- Khabibulin to the Oilers. HAHA!

- Chris Neil for 2M for 4 years is total nonsense. He's a goon who is marginally better at ES than guys like Orr and Godard. Is Murray one of the worst GM's in the league right now?

- Scott Clemmensen lands in FLA for the same price Anderson got in COL. Anderson is younger and his career stats in both the NHL and AHL are vastly superior. Given how mediocre Clemmensen has been for years, there's probably no chance he repeats the run he had with the Devils last year.

More as they come in...
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2009 Free Agency

I'll add my thoughts here as deals come in. My Flames stuff is elsewhere, but I'll talk about everything else here.

Some initial thoughts:

- I'm really interested to see what Minnesota will do. As of right now, I have no idea what direction the new regime will take. Risebrough was almost never a player on July 1, so I half expect Fletcher to try to make splash or two. I also think Saku Koivu will end up a Wild by the end of the day.

- The Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers both have a lot of spaces to fill and, with the Gomez deal, both have some money to spend. If every third contract today involves NYR or MON, I won't be surprised.

- Mike Cammalleri will end up in Toronto I think. Burke was probably hoping to see the Sedins make it to free agency, but with them off the table he'll turn his attention to other shiny baubles like Cammalleri.
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Trickle up

From Nathan Fournier via The Hockey Program:

I think the new trend from now on is goalies aren't going to be selected in the first round unless they are elite. Goalies who I thought were late 1st round or second round players went in the third round or later. Goalies I thought were late round picks went earlier then I expected.

I noticed the same thing this season: for the first time in recent memory, a puck stopper wasn't chosen in the first round. Coincidence? Or is theory from the lowly blogosphere somehow trickling into the NHL team's offices?
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Draft Thoughts

- Not sure what to make of the Flames draft at this point. I was somewhat surprised with the Erixon pick and disappointed Calgary didn't grab Schroeder when he fell to them at 20. Bjorklund and Howse are intriguing mid rounders, especially the Swede who will playing in the SEL as a teen this coming season. I know absolutely nothing about the goalie and Gaelen Patterson was passed over in his draft year but put up decent enough numbers to be worth a late round gamble this time.

I was surprised Calgary took a d-man with their first pick, although Tod Button mentioned in a post-draft interview that the focus after that was to get scoring wingers (as I surmised previously). Thus the Howse, Bjorklund, Bennett picks later on.

Whether or not Bouwmeester signs with the Flames, I approve of Sutter's gambit to acquire his rights, if only because the price was so small. Leo wasn't coming back anyways and a 3rd rounder is about a 19% chance at a future NHLer.

- The Oilers draft looked like a mix of good and bad to me. They got a really nice player in the first round in Paajarvi-Svaslkahjsdlkasj*&! but then opted to use their 3rd round choice on a guy might have an Eric Godard-type ceiling. Now, as established, 3rd rounders aren't exactly worth a whole lot anyways, but pissing one away on a potential goon makes precisely zero sense to me. Goons don't have to be drafted or developed - there's plenty of them floating around for league minimum.

The Brodziak trade was pretty bizarre as well. He's never going to be a star but I got the feeling that at 25 he had established himself as an NHLer and still had a few years to grow...moving him for a 4th round pick is selling for pennies on the dollar. Unless he's roundly hated in the dressing room for some reason, doesn't make much sense to me.

- NYI moves at the draft were, appropriately enough, baffling. They moved a handful of picks to move up from 26-16...then did it again to move from 16-12...only to choose Calvin DeHaan, who very likely could have been available at 26 anyways. He was rated as the 25th skater in North America by Central Scouting and is said to have sizable holes in his game outside of the offensive zone. Erixon, Rundblad, Despres, Moore and Olsen were all still on the table at 12, BTW.

- Equally head scratching was the Nick Leddy choice by Minny at 16. He won the "Mr. Hockey" award in Minnesota for his work last season, but that's a fairly high draft choice to invest in a kid that hasn't played more than HS hockey.

- Scott Howson was quietly busy at the draft. He traded moved 16-77 for 26-37-62-92 and then dealt 26-37 to Ana for #21. He started with 16-77 and ended with 21-62-92. Decent work I'd say.

- My mock choice Landon Ferraro went to the Red Wings. Lucky bastard. And good on Detroit, Ferraro looks like decent value in the second round to me.

- Philly's trade for Pronger is either going to pay off in spades or completely blow up in their faces. He's 34 years old with a year left on his contract and the Flyers moved 3 first round picks and a somewhat useful roster player for him. That's a really high price to pay and one that may hobble the club in the future, especially if he starts to decline or doesn't sign to stay after this season.

All that said, a marriage of Captain Elbows and the broad street bully franchise seems like a match made in heaven.

- Im somewhat surprised LA kept the 5th overall choice. For two reasons:

1.) They're a club on the verge of breaking out of the basement I think. All they need is some true-blue veteran talent to prop up their bevy of skilled youngsters. A 5th for a signed star at either forward or defense really would have made sense.

2.) A huge portion of their roster is kids. Cheap kids for now, but once they all come up for renewal the Kings are going in for a world of hurt. Adding to that cohort may be a problem.

- It was terrible to see Vancouver scoop Schroeder at 21. He was the best value player at the time and apparently fell due to size and attitude concerns. I have a feeling he's going to be a quality NHL player though and I hope he doesn't make the Flames regret missing him at 20.
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