The Dead Puck Era

This is Jacques Lemaire, now the coach of the Minnesota Wild, but previously as coach of the New Jersey Devils, is the consensus evil genius that first entered into the Faustian bargain to trade pleasing, exciting, scoring hockey, for boring, defensive, BUT winning hockey. His apparent success, it can be argued, led to the majority of NHL teams, especially the middling ones, to concentrate on defence, to the disadvantage of scoring league-wide. This became the start of the 'Dead Puck Era'. Its a descriptive phrase borrowed from the world of MLB and its Dead Ball Era, another period of low-scoring where defenses dominated. Roughly described as the period between NHL work stoppages (94/95 season to the end of the 03/04 season), the Dead Puck Era has seen scoring fall steadily over this period until rule changes that encouraged offense were enacted as part of the fallout over the lost 04/05 season. The decline of goal scoring has been blamed on many factors: 'the trap', referees acceptance of obstruction, goalies' equipment and/or coaching improvements, better coaching in general, introduction of video techniques in pre scouting, etc.

Average goals/game totals fell during this period from 95/96 (first full year after strike) of 6.29 g/gm fairly steadily to the low of 5.14g/gm in 03/04 (last season before lockout). The 5.14 goal average per game was less than the Oilers used to score on their own at the height of Gretzky era. As late as 95/96 three teams scored above 320 goals/season (Pitt, Colo, Det) and 5 players scored 50 or better, but by 98/99 only one team scored more than 250 goals/season (Toronto!) and there were no 50 goal scorers. In 95/96 only 1 team (Detroit) allowed less than 200 goals/season, in the 03/04 season 14 teams allowed less than 200 goals, and for the first time since the 67/68 expansion there were no 50 goal scorers AND no 100 pt producers.

The goals/game average surged immediately after the lockout in the 05/06 season by a whole goal per game, helped by rule changes that included OT and SO goals being included in team totals and many more obstruction like penalties called to try and open up the game. The increase in PP goals also helped to raise the per game average. But as time goes on the goal/gm average is decreasing once again, and it looks like a low scoring environment is settling in as a permanent part of the 'new NHL'. So maybe the Dead Puck Era isn't really over yet.


GETTING TO 500

Okay okay, enough with the history, so what? The interesting thing about all of this to me, is the impact that it has on the types of teams that have become successful: Detroit, New Jersey and Colorado have dominated this period. And the impact the era has on Career numbers on guys (like Theoren Fleury a couple of threads ago) that spent most of their career during this decade.

Reaching the 500 goal plateau has become, if not commonplace, a reliable event that one or two greats celebrate every year on the way to the HHOF and hockey immortality, but looking at the list and the active players on it; celebrating 500 goals is going to become increasingly rare. Sergei Fedorov is at 472 career goals, 28 goals short. Can he get 28 this year in Washington? Its been 3 seasons since Fedorov has scored as many as 28/yr. Even playing with Ovechkin, he'll be 39 in December and this is the last year of his contract. If he doesn't make it this year can he limp along long enough to get to 500 or will he retreat to the KHL and probably some kind of playing coach role? But even if we stipulate that Fedorov will make 500, who after him? Gary Roberts at 434? Gary's 41 years old and lately scoring less than 10 goals/year. Roberts isn't going to make it. Rod Brind'amour? He's at 427 goals and 37 years old. He's got another three years on his Carolina contract, but can he average about 25 goals per? I say he doesn't quite make it. After Rod, the next good candidate is Iginla at 374 but thats probably at least 4 years away, and crossed fingers, barring injuries. Iggy has been one of the few quality scorers who've spent their entire careers within what we're calling the Dead Puck era who'll likely get his 500th goal with a little something left in the tank. Some pretty notable players of this period like Bure, Naslund, Alfredsson, Kariya, Kovalev aren't going to make it over the hurdle. We'll probably have to wait till the Hossa, LeCavalier, Kovalchuk and Ovechkin generation, guys that the league will try and protect with rule changes and maybe equipment changes, before career numbers begin to challenge the 500 barrier again.